#Soybean Crash

The USA soybean futures are down about -15% off their recent highs. I have sold 2 /ZSU8 910 Puts for about $4 and as of Friday close, the price was $868.5.  This big loss doesn't scare me.   
Main factors causing the crash are weather outlook and demand from China. At the same time, the Brazilian soybeans for loading in September are at a premium of about $2 per bushel to futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade. So far this is the result of trade wars ignited by the president Trump. However, soybean watchers believe that if China implements tariffs, the European Union will import more beans from the USA than from Brazil.  The common wisdom is that the discounted price in the U.S. will cause that to happen. As for the weather impact, one can say that probably the best weather scenario for soybean farms is already priced in.  

For the above explained reasons I have neutral to long bias and will keep 2 /ZS futures contracts in the portfolio while selling Calls.

+ $420, #WTI #RBOB pair #trade : scaled out again @16.36.

Exec Time

Spread

Side

Qty

Pos Effect

Symbol

Exp

Strike

Type

Price

Net Price

Order Type

Crack

16.3558

6/29/2018 12:13

FUTURE

BUY

1

TO CLOSE

/CLQ8

18-Aug

FUTURE

73.94

73.94

MKT

6/29/2018 12:13

FUTURE

SELL

-1

TO CLOSE

/RBQ8

18-Aug

FUTURE

2.1499

2.1499

MKT

This WTI (oil) RBOB (gasoline) futures pair was bought @15.91 and sold @16.36. 

I have 2 pairs left @19.80.

#WTI #RBOB pair #trade : scaled out @15.46; $700 profit

 Scalped $700 .    This trade is short WTI oil futures against RBOB gasoline futures also known as Simple Crack Spread. By this trade, the position was reduced back to 3 pairs @18.5.

Exec Time

Spread

Side

Qty

Pos Effect

Symbol

Exp

Strike

Type

Price

Net Price

Order Type

Crack

15.4668

6/29/2018 9:54

FUTURE

BUY

1

TO CLOSE

/CLQ8

18-Aug

FUTURE

74.22

74.22

MKT

6/29/2018 9:54

FUTURE

SELL

-1

TO CLOSE

/RBQ8

18-Aug

FUTURE

2.1354

2.1354

MKT

#WTI #RBOB pair #trade : scaled in @14.75

This is becoming an All In trade now.

Exec Time

Spread

Side

Qty

Pos Effect

Symbol

Exp

Strike

Type

Price

Net Price

Order Type

Crack

14.7522

6/28/2018 13:03

FUTURE

SELL

-1

TO OPEN

/CLQ8

18-Aug

FUTURE

73.62

73.62

MKT

6/28/2018 13:03

FUTURE

BUY

1

TO OPEN

/RBQ8

18-Aug

FUTURE

2.1041

2.1041

MKT

#WTI #RBOB pair #trade : bailed out /CLQ8 puts; profit $1050

The powerful after OPEC rally has sent /RBQ8 -/CLQ8 simple crack spread back to 16 ( How to calculate and trade Simple Crack Spread using RBOB and WTI Futures). The position is now 3 pairs @18.5.  Thus so far the running loss is -$7,500. On the other side, the defense by /CL puts worked out well and these puts were bailed out today - plus one thousand fifty federal reserve dollars.

Exec Time	Spread	Side	Qty	Pos Effect	Symbol	Exp	Strike	Type	Price	Net Price	Order Type
6/27/2018 11:31	SINGLE	BUY	1	TO CLOSE	/CLQ8 1/1000 AUG 18	/LOQ8	67	PUT	0.19	0.19	LMT
6/27/2018 11:30	SINGLE	BUY	2	TO CLOSE	/CLQ8 1/1000 AUG 18	/LOQ8	65	PUT	0.08	0.08	LMT

#WTI #RBOB pair #trade : scaled in @15.91

 Q8 Oil - gasoline pair trade keeps swinging in a very violent fashion. In the morning I scaled out @18.11 and now I am back @15.91. Please remember that $1 of Crack Spread costs $1000 ( How to calculate and trade Simple Crack Spread using RBOB and WTI Futures. ).

Exec Time

Spread

Side

Qty

Pos Effect

Symbol

Exp

Strike

Type

Price

Net Price

Order Type

Crack

6/26/2018 14:38

SINGLE

SELL

-1

TO OPEN

/CLQ8 1/1000 AUG 18

/LOQ8

67

PUT

0.48

0.48

LMT

15.912

6/26/2018 14:28

FUTURE

SELL

-1

TO OPEN

/CLQ8

18-Aug

FUTURE

70.44

70.44

MKT

6/26/2018 14:28

FUTURE

BUY

1

TO OPEN

/RBQ8

18-Aug

FUTURE

2.056

2.056

MKT

#silver income #trade : take $100 profit and roll

Exec Time	Spread	Side	Qty	Pos Effect	Symbol	Exp	Strike	Type	Price	Net Price	Order Type
6/26/2018 13:49	SINGLE	BUY	7	TO OPEN	SLV	17-Jan-20	10	PUT	0.03	0.03	LMT
6/26/2018 13:45	SINGLE	SELL	-7	TO OPEN	SLV	17-Jan-20	16	PUT	1.51	1.51	LMT
6/26/2018 13:43	SINGLE	BUY	7	TO CLOSE	SLV	28-Sep-18	16	PUT	0.91	0.91	LMT

#WTI #RBOB pair #trade : scaled out again, profit +$700

Exec Time

Spread

Side

Qty

Pos Effect

Symbol

Exp

Strike

Type

Price

Net Price

Order Type

Crack

6/26/2018 8:18

SINGLE

BUY

1

TO CLOSE

/CLQ8 1/1000 AUG 18

/LOQ8

65

PUT

0.43

0.43

LMT

18.1102

6/26/2018 7:50

FUTURE

BUY

1

TO CLOSE

/CLQ8

18-Aug

FUTURE

68.33

68.33

MKT

6/26/2018 7:50

FUTURE

SELL

-1

TO CLOSE

/RBQ8

18-Aug

FUTURE

2.0581

2.0581

MKT

#Uranium is beating #Bitcoin

Despite rising interest rates #Uranium is beating #Bitcoin. 

Uranium spot price YTD : +1.8%

Bitcoin price           YTD : -57.2%

#WTI #RBOB pair #trade : scaled out for +$650

As it was described earlier today, Q8 Oil - gasoline pair trade went very bad on me.  Today this spread is a very volatile one which probably tells that the bottom is close.  However, take your money and run is my approach here.

Exec Time

Spread

Side

Qty

Pos Effect

Symbol

Exp

Strike

Type

Price

Net Price

Order Type

6/25/2018 11:54

SINGLE

BUY

1

TO CLOSE

/CLQ8 1/1000 AUG 18

/LOQ8

65

PUT

0.49

0.49

LMT

Crack

17.2306

6/25/2018 11:50

FUTURE

BUY

1

TO CLOSE

/CLQ8

18-Aug

FUTURE

68.21

68.21

MKT

6/25/2018 11:50

FUTURE

SELL

-1

TO CLOSE

/RBQ8

18-Aug

FUTURE

2.0343

2.0343

LMT

 How to calculate and trade Simple Crack Spread using RBOB and WTI Futures. 

When a pair trade goes wrong.

I averaged down  3 units of /RBQ8-/CLQ8 spread @19.02.  The spread is @17 now and keeps dropping. The rescue plan is to sell /CL puts.

 How to calculate and trade Simple Crack Spread using RBOB and WTI Futures. 

When a pair trade goes wrong and martingale doesn't help one has to use theta to save the game. 

Monday 6/25/18

Trade Update:  Scaled in @16.54 and sold 4 /CLQ8 65 Puts

Exec Time

Spread

Side

Qty

Pos Effect

Symbol

Exp

Strike

Type

Price

Net Price

Order Type

Crack

16.5358

6/25/2018 10:41

FUTURE

SELL

-1

TO OPEN

/CLQ8

18-Aug

FUTURE

68.51

68.51

MKT

6/25/2018 10:41

FUTURE

BUY

1

TO OPEN

/RBQ8

18-Aug

FUTURE

2.0249

2.0249

LMT

6/23/2018 10:40

SINGLE

SELL

-1

TO OPEN

/CLQ8 1/1000 AUG 18

/LOQ8

65

PUT

0.48

0.48

LMT

6/24/2018 10:40

SINGLE

SELL

-2

TO OPEN

/CLQ8 1/1000 AUG 18

/LOQ8

65

PUT

0.48

0.48

LMT

6/25/2018 10:40

SINGLE

SELL

-1

TO OPEN

/CLQ8 1/1000 AUG 18

/LOQ8

65

PUT

0.48

0.48

LMT

#SP500 $ES_F #daytrading #algotrading : 5 points #Solstice #Trade

Today. June 21st, medved's SP500 daytrading algorithm went short and scored 5 points  The algo has generated another two trades during this week to the total profit of 15 points. The algo fully recovered the big loss.  Year to date in 2018 the algorithm has generated 90 points per one emini contract.

Solstice Trade:

#TESLA #Big #Short is coming

It looks like Elon Musk is a serial liar and a serial killer. How many more lives before The National Transportation Safety Board will pronounce: "Tesla is not safe". Short $TSLA when it is at new ATH.

" Saboteur hacked Tesla code, stole data and may have started fire." Elon Musk

#soybean #ZS_F : protective puts

Soybean is under tremendous pressure. Let us buy some protection. The pain phase is in.

Exec Time	Spread	Side	Qty	Pos Effect	Symbol	Exp	Strike	Type	Price	Net Price	Order Type
6/15/2018 10:41	SINGLE	BUY	1	TO OPEN	/ZSU8 1/50 SEP 18	/OZSU8	800	PUT	1.25	1.25	LMT
6/15/2018 10:41	SINGLE	BUY	1	TO OPEN	/ZSU8 1/50 SEP 18	/OZSU8	800	PUT	1.25	1.25	LMT

#SP500 2905 Call goes to heaven : 1 point

Macro works. 

#SP500 option pins for OPEX r @2750

2018-06-16 opt_pin@2750.0 /ES@2792.5 
2018-06-15 opt_pin@275.0 SPY@279.1 
2018-06-15 opt_pin@2750.0 SPX@2787.14

10 % #income #trade for elderly : trade update

I invested $3600  to get ~10%  of interest per year in my mother in law account. 

Today FOMC is going to raise rates again. This is a negative factor for silver prices. For this reason, I 've decided to increase protection an have bought Oct, 18 13.5 Put.




Since March,18  the account is up ~ 4%. 

#Crack #Spread : take $550 profit

It is possible that we will see cheaper Q8 simple crack spread;  I am taking $550 profit here and looking forward to a better entry. The trade entry was posted here.

Exec Time

Spread

Side

Qty

Pos Effect

Symbol

Exp

Strike

Type

Price

Order Type

Crack_Spread

22.1086

6/13/2018 11:16

FUTURE

SELL

-1

TO CLOSE

/RBQ8

18-Aug

FUTURE

2.1083

MKT

6/13/2018 11:16

FUTURE

BUY

1

TO CLOSE

/CLQ8

18-Aug

FUTURE

66.44

MKT

 How to calculate and trade Simple Crack Spread using RBOB and WTI Futures.

Q8 Simple #Crack #Spread : long #Gas short #Oil pair #trade

 "Crack Spread" is the difference between the cost of the oil products such as heating oil, gasoline and the cost of oil from which these products were cracked. Here there is an explanation of how to calculate and trade this pair using RBOB and WTI futures.

Exec Time	Spread	Side	Qty	Pos Effect	Symbol	Exp	Strike	Type	Price	Order Type	Crack_Spread
											21.5238
6/12/2018 10:38	FUTURE	SELL	-1	TO OPEN	/CLQ8	18-Aug		FUTURE	66.42	MKT
6/12/2018 10:38	FUTURE	BUY	1	TO OPEN	/RBQ8	18-Aug		FUTURE	2.0939	MKT

#soybean $ZS_F : scaled in #naked #puts

Negative news for US farmers :
1.  China wants to produce more soybean.
2. Argentina's soybean crop is set to increase by 44% in 2018/2019. 

  Price keeps dropping. Contrarians have to endure more pain. Today I've added to the position. This is -No Pain No Gain- trade now.

Exec Time	Spread	Side	Qty	Pos Effect	Symbol	Exp	Strike	Type	Price	Net Price	Order Type
6/11/2018 12:13	SINGLE	SELL	-1	TO OPEN	/ZSU8 1/50 SEP 18	/OZSU8	910	PUT	7	7	LMT

#SP500 $ES_F #daytrading #algotrading : 12 points

I continue SP500 daytrading using the statistics-based algorithm. The algo has generated only one trade during the last 5 trading days. It was a successful trade, 12 points. The algo needs another 7 points win to fully recover from the big loss. Year to date in 2018 the algorithm generated 70 points per one emini contract.

#Uranium is going to beat #crypto

Today I had a chat with two young people. They literally are mesmerized by various #ICO and just don't want to see anything else. Well,  # Uranium is going to explode, so to say. In the followup post, an interested reader can find a reflection on the cycles in #PonzyCoin and #Uranium. 

#Uranium $URA spike : Judgment of Solomon

As a $URA trader, I want to take advantage of
1) high volatility, ~28%;
2) two 3+%  days in a row.

As a Uranium watcher, I want to keep the long position.

The Solomon's approach is to split the baby and put a strangle around half of the URA position.

Exec Time	Spread	Side	Qty	Pos Effect	Symbol	Exp	Strike	Type	Price	Net Price	Order Type
6/6/2018 15:24	SINGLE	SELL	-1	TO OPEN	URA	20-Jul-18	15	CALL	0.4	0.4	LMT
6/6/2018 11:33	SINGLE	SELL	-1	TO OPEN	URA	20-Jul-18	14	PUT	0.3	0.3	LMT

#soybean $ZS_F : naked put reentry

Whenever Donald Trump tweets the price of soybean goes down. After it, the price bounces back.  Let us use this opportunity to reload our winning naked puts trade. 

The cone shows one standard deviation move. 

910 Put 80 DTE (days to expiration); Buying power effect: ~ $600; Max profit: $140.

Exec Time	Spread	Side	Qty	Pos Effect	Symbol	Exp	Strike	Type	Price	Net Price	Order Type
6/5/2018 12:12	SINGLE	SELL	-1	TO OPEN	/ZSU8 1/50 SEP 18	/OZSU8	910	PUT	2.875	2.875	LMT

#silver $SLV : take $250 profit & new entries

I continue rolling credit put spreads in silver ETF SLV. This is an income trade where interest on the invested capital is collected instead of buying a dream of the unlimited upside. The closed positions yielded 10% in 240days.
In the wake of the coming liquidity crisis, the new entries were moved far-out in time to collect more cash aka premium.

Exec Time	Spread	Side	Qty	Pos Effect	Symbol	Exp	Strike	Type	Price	Net Price	Order Type
New entries
6/4/2018 10:10	SINGLE	BUY	6	TO OPEN	SLV	17-Jan-20	10	PUT	0.04	0.04	LMT
6/4/2018 10:10	SINGLE	BUY	1	TO OPEN	SLV	17-Jan-20	10	PUT	0.04	0.04	LMT
6/4/2018 10:04	SINGLE	SELL	-7	TO OPEN	SLV	17-Jan-20	16	PUT	1.49	1.49	LMT
Take profit
6/4/2018 10:00	SINGLE	BUY	7	TO CLOSE	SLV	20-Jul-18	16	PUT	0.62	0.62	LMT
Original entries were posted back in Oct,17
10/31/2017 10:45	SINGLE	SELL	-1	TO OPEN	SLV	20-Jul-18	16	PUT	1.09	1.09	LMT
10/31/2017 10:45	SINGLE	BUY	1	TO OPEN	SLV	20-Jul-18	11	PUT	0.04	0.04	LMT
10/30/2017 9:46	SINGLE	BUY	1	TO OPEN	SLV	20-Jul-18	11	PUT	0.03	0.03	LMT
10/30/2017 9:45	SINGLE	SELL	-1	TO OPEN	SLV	20-Jul-18	16	PUT	1.05	1.05	LMT
10/9/2017 14:38	SINGLE	BUY	2	TO OPEN	SLV	20-Jul-18	10	PUT	0.03	0.03	LMT
10/9/2017 14:32	SINGLE	SELL	-2	TO OPEN	SLV	20-Jul-18	16	PUT	1.06	1.06	LMT
10/9/2017 10:00	SINGLE	BUY	1	TO OPEN	SLV	20-Jul-18	11	PUT	0.04	0.04	LMT
10/9/2017 9:34	SINGLE	SELL	-1	TO OPEN	SLV	20-Jul-18	16	PUT	1.05	1.05	LMT
10/5/2017 15:15	SINGLE	SELL	-1	TO OPEN	SLV	20-Jul-18	16	PUT	1.21	1.21	LMT
10/5/2017 14:05	SINGLE	BUY	1	TO OPEN	SLV	20-Jul-18	10	PUT	0.02	0.02	LMT
10/4/2017 9:35	SINGLE	BUY	1	TO OPEN	SLV	20-Jul-18	10	PUT	0.03	0.03	LMT
10/4/2017 9:34	SINGLE	SELL	-1	TO OPEN	SLV	20-Jul-18	16	PUT	1.2	1.2	LMT