Exec Time | Spread | Side | Qty | Pos Effect | Symbol | Exp | Type | Price | Net Price | Order Type |
5/3/2016 9:30 | FUTURE | BUY | 1 | TO CLOSE | /6JM6 | 16-Jun | FUTURE | 0.009437 | 0.009437 | LMT |
5/3/2016 0:36 | FUTURE | SELL | -1 | TO OPEN | /6JM6 | 16-Jun | FUTURE | 0.00945 | 0.00945 | LMT |
Numbers
1. Notional 12, 500, 000.00 japanese yen.
2. Implied volatility as of today is ~ 13%
3. Expected daily move 12500000*0.13/sqrt(365)=85, 056 yen=$800
which is 800/6.25=128 ticks
4. Today's actual range was 120 ticks.
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STRATEGY 1
1. Sell new top (about +0.5SD ); +60 ticks
2. Take profit at 0.25SD; 30 ticks
3.Stop loss +1SD; 128 ticks.
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1. Rule #1 was not fulfilled. The position was opened below slightly the previous top.
2. The drawdown of ~-$500 was experienced.
2. The profit of $125 was taken, which is 20 not 30 ticks.
Conclusion is that Rule #1 must not be violated.
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Exec Time | Spread | Side | Qty | Pos Effect | Symbol | Exp | Type | Price | Net Price | Order Type |
5/1/2016 18:13 | FUTURE | BUY | 1 | TO CLOSE | /6JM6 | 16-Jun | FUTURE | 0.009381 | 0.009381 | LMT |
4/29/2016 15:28 | FUTURE | SELL | -1 | TO OPEN | /6JM6 | 16-Jun | FUTURE | 0.009391 | 0.009391 | LMT |
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